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Incoming German Chancellor Friedrich Merz wants to strengthen German industry, but his thinking is stuck in the past. The key question is how to make Germany and the EU thrive in the age of systemic competition.

Europe’s dilemma is that it needs to try and keep the United States on board while preparing for its departure. The best way forward is accelerated burden-shifting to build a more European NATO.

American hegemony could experience the same decline and sudden fall experienced in Ancient Rome. Europe needs to draw the right lessons from the past to thrive in this new era.

In the absence of the US security guarantee, Europe will have to rearm while also remaining united. The good news is that the Europeans are capable of achieving both—as long as they truly want to.

As long as President Vladimir Putin is in the Kremlin, Russia will pose a threat to European security. The EU should become more active in countering Russian influence in its neighborhood and in Central Asia.

The United States is withdrawing from Europe, but it’s not all doom and gloom. The EU and non-members will need new common structures, but the continent should well be able to hold its own. Incoming German Chancellor Friedrich Merz will play a key role.

Europe has never had so few alternatives as it does today. But that is exactly why Europe will succeed.

Incoming Chancellor Friedrich Merz has already lost a lot of trust in Germany. Meanwhile, his EU partners are hoping he will use German money to underpin European leadership ambitions. They are in danger of losing sight of the domestic political risks.

The United States is turning into an unreliable ally for Europe. Increasing dependence on China in response, however, would not be a good idea.

China’s top diplomat has proposed aligning the Belt and Road Initiative with Global Gateway, the EU’s infrastructure investment strategy. If it does choose this path, Brussels must remain clear-eyed about the BRI’s firmly China-centric nature.

Only 4 percent of Europeans, on average, consider China to be an “ally,” while over a third regard it as a “rival” or an “adversary.” Still, the temptation to see it as a “strategic hedge” is there.

Beijing has been outpacing Brussels in the so-called Global South. Now the EU must rethink its global game plan.