Defense is this year’s Brussels buzzword, sparking a new round of European Union shapeshifting. After decades of leaving security matters largely in the hands of individual member states and NATO, the bloc is trying to take on a bigger role. But new leadership raises new questions: Will the EU step up, or step on its own feet?
Lithuania’s Andrius Kubilius has taken on a newly created role as defense commissioner alongside the EU’s other top jobs, making good on one of Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s flashier campaign promises for her second five-year mandate. At first glance, this is a traffic jam waiting to happen. The EU already has budget and industrial policy commissioners. There is a treaty-designated top job, the high representative for foreign policy and security affairs, now held by former Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas. And during the prior institutional cycle, von der Leyen herself took a leading role in representing the EU around the world.
Adding an extra politician to this mix therefore runs the risk of creating new power struggles rather than newfound security. Yet so far, so good. It helps that Kallas and Kubilius both hail from Baltic states that have a particular interest in keeping the EU focused on external threats due to their proximity to Russia. Also, von der Leyen took care to lay out separate roles for each job in the mission letters to her new administration.
Tough Topics
Kallas will take the lead on EU enlargement, neighborhood policy, and the EU’s stance toward the Middle East, among other duties. As her January meeting with the families of Israeli hostages held by Hamas showed, she is prepared to represent Brussels on a global stage and to tackle its overall foreign affairs strategy. Von der Leyen also tapped Kallas to work with the commissioners for the Mediterranean and for industrial strategy, in the hope of building stronger policies on tough topics like immigration, economic security, and multilateral cooperation.
Yet defense can no longer be bundled neatly into those goals given the developments in recent years. Russia’s war in Ukraine is now entering its third year, Finland and Sweden have joined NATO, and it is not at all clear that Washington will continue to underwrite European security with US President Donald Trump back in the White House. Kubilius therefore will spearhead a push for more joint investment, joint procurement, and technological innovation. His assignment from von der Leyen puts a particular emphasis on dual-use technologies—those that contribute significantly to the civilian economy as well as military capability—and on putting together a plan, fast.
Kubilius and Kallas will face their first big test at the new administration’s 100-day mark, when their White Paper on the Future of European Defense is due. The pair are supposed to frame a new approach to defense, identify investment needs, and look for ways to get more buy-in from the European Parliament and the EU member states that make up the European Council.
Freeing Up Resources
Proposals are already flying on everything from new joint procurement programs to common borrowing expressly for common security goals, such as air defense. Even if member states balk at going to the market jointly for military assets, there may be efforts to free up national resources by pursuing EU-level borrowing to improve the energy grid and other essential infrastructure. Furthermore, the EU’s “Big Five” alliance of security-minded countries has already met twice—a sign that they may be serious about moving quickly to make Europe more resilient and less dependent on US support. Germany, France, Italy, Poland, and Spain recognize that they have the budget and the opportunity to take on a leadership role, perhaps with support from the United Kingdom.
Brussels has a lot of work to do, and a new team of leaders to try to do it. By doubling the number of top-level officials, the European Commission has bet that more resources will lead to more action. But it won’t be enough for Kallas and Kubelius just to sit down together at the table. For Europe to form the strategic and industrial alliances it needs, they will need to make good on the work.
Rebecca Christie is IPQ’s Brussels columnist and senior fellow at Bruegel, the European think tank specializing in economics.
