IPQ Fall 2026 Issue: The Looming Confrontation

While German politics are in disarray, the EU is approaching a moment of truth in its relationship with China.

Chinese trade policies and subsidies are destroying the European Union’s industrial base. This fall, the Europeans need to respond—and prepare for the conflict in the right way.

The German government finally wants to protect European industry from Chinese overcapacity. However, it is relying on the wrong measures to do so.

Beijing’s export controls on rare earths are never truly cancelled, only delayed. They could undermine Europe’s plans to push back against “China Shock 2.0.”

Germany’s far right has had another strong showing in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, with the chancellor’s CDU failing to enter the parliament. Without a challenger ready to pounce, however, Merz is likely to stay in office—for now.

What is the role of the European Union when economics clashes with sovereignty and security?

Germany is asking itself whether it can continue to trust France if the far-right Marine Le Pen is elected president next spring. But that is the wrong question.

The Europeans should offer their expertise in setting up channels of communication and other arms-control measures to their Indo-Pacific partners. Such know-how may become useful sooner rather than later.

Relations between Washington and Berlin have deteriorated in recent years. With the return of great power competition, both sides would profit immensely from revitalizing it, by finding a new division of labor that resembles the old one.