In the end it was neither a pro-Russian provocation in Estonia’s Russian-speaking Narva region, nor a sudden emergence of “green men”—Russian soldiers without insignia—in Latvia. The massive escalation in Russia’s hybrid war against NATO took the form of a swarm of 21 drones that violated Poland’s airspace on the night of September 9 to 10. Five of them were shot down by NATO fighters, others crashed, causing only minor damage. Polish and NATO military authorities kept calm, showing resolve without claiming that an armed conflict with Russia had begun.
However, to Polish politicians and the public at large it became immediately clear that a scenario well known from various war-gaming exercises had just come true. There is little doubt that the Russian drone provocation directed against Poland is a watershed moment in the conflict between Russia and the West, with the boundaries between hybrid and open hostilities highly blurred. It is too early to say if it will prove to be a gamechanger. The shock it has created in Poland, somewhat paradoxically, may well have a positive effect on Poland’s foreign policy compass.
Crumbling Consensus
The latter was recently shaken by deepening domestic political conflict and the crumbling consensus on Ukraine. The rivalry between the right-wing President Karol Nawrocki, who took office on August 6, and the centrist Prime Minister Donald Tusk has hampered the country’s ability to shape the West’s Ukraine policy—as demonstrated by Poland’s absence at the crucial meeting of Ukraine’s allies with US President Donald Trump at the White House after Trump’s Alaska summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The times when the whole political class and the vast majority of the society stood behind an unequivocal support for Kyiv are over. “Ukraine fatigue” is reflected in opinion polls and policy debates, such as the one about cutting subsidies for Ukrainian families that have taken refuge in Poland. Nawrocki is pushing for a “Poland first” approach—ostensibly emulating Trump and not shying away from anti-Ukrainian language (including saying he opposes Ukraine’s EU and NATO aspirations).
New-found Unity
Poland is a pivotal country for Ukraine’s Western integration which, in turn, is an indispensable element of any sustainable post-war solution. It is thus highly consequential that the Russian provocation has led to a demonstration of unity between the political enemies Nawrocki and Tusk.
Both supported the military response of striking the drones with highly expensive missiles (in the absence of a dedicated anti-drone defense system) as well as Warsaw invoking Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty and calling an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council. No less important was the fact that both leaders (and all political parties except for the far-right Konfederacja) sharply condemned the anti-Ukrainian disinformation campaign, clearly inspired by Moscow, which put the blame for the accident on Kyiv and claimed Russia had not intended for the drones to enter Polish air space.
The scope of these propaganda activities on social media has been enormous, and Poles are not immune to these kinds of efforts. Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski’s visit to Kyiv on September 12, just two days after the incident, was thus of high political symbolism and value. As he put it, support for Ukraine is the “best defense of Poland.” This message is directed at Poles as much as at Ukrainians. The need to counter anti-Ukrainian ressentiments and reinforce the sense that Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s war of aggression is “our war” is a necessary lesson from the drone incident.
Blowing Hot and Cold
It can also help build a clear-eyed view of Poland’s alliances. Just days before the Russian drones entered Polish air space, public opinion had been focused on Nawrocki’s inaugural visit to Washington. His meeting with Trump was hailed as a success. The US president did not spare with niceties and promised that the 10,000 US soldiers stationed in Poland would not be withdrawn anytime soon; rather, their number could be even increased. Trump also invited Nawrocki to participate in the G20 summit meeting in Miami in 2026.
The meeting rekindled the idea in Poland that there is a “special” US-Polish partnership. However, the narrow focus on bilateralism conveniently ignores not only the erratic nature of Trump’s declarations, but also the fact that Poland’s security depends more on the US’ overall approach to Europe and Ukraine. It thus came as a cold shower, especially for the Polish right-wing Trump enthusiasts, that the Russian provocation was first met with silence by the US president, followed by vague speculations about a potential “mistake” (and not a deliberate action) on Putin’s part. This was decisively rebuked not only by Tusk and Sikorski, but also—much more surprisingly —by the opposition leader Jarosław Kaczyński (the head of the Law and Justice party, or PiS, which is behind Nawrocki) who admitted that he saw things differently than the US president.
Europe to the Rescue
In the event—and counterintuitively for the Polish traditional approach and mindset—the immediate, political and material, support came from Poland’s European allies, not from the US. The Russian drones were shot down by Dutch fighter jets. The European partners declared that they would bolster air defenses at Poland’s and NATO’s Eastern border by committing to sending additional equipment and soldiers.
Germany extended and strengthened its participation in the air policing mission in Poland until the end of the year. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced in her State of the European Union speech on September 10 that the EU would support building a “drone wall” on its eastern border, while NATO launched the Eastern Sentry mission with Europeans taking up the bulk of task.
The drone shock has both revealed the continent’s massive vulnerabilities and animated Poland’s European neighbors to take action to fill the gaps. It will be a race against time given the continuous massive military buildup in Russia and Putin’s ambition to divide and subordinate Europe. In this fight, the Europeans will have to rely more and more on themselves. Their reactions to the drone incident may be a signal for the traditionally mistrustful Poles that the alternative to the illusion of an unconditional US “umbrella” is becoming slightly less illusionary itself.
Piotr Buras is IPQ’s Warsaw columnist and head of the European Council on Foreign Relations’ (ECFR) Warsaw office.
