Warsaw Memo

Relations between Poland and Ukraine have deteriorated massively. It’s a problem for the whole of the EU; Kyiv’s closest partners need to pay more attention.

With its opposition to taking cheap loans from the EU’s SAFE defense fund, the nationalist-populist Law and Justice (PiS) party has decided to make Poland’s attitude to the EU the country’s key political cleavage. This is unprecedented and dangerous.

It will not be possible to secure Ukraine without the EU changing its approach to enlargement.

Despite good intentions, ties between Warsaw and Berlin have remained frosty. The European rearmament effort offers an opportunity to improve the relationship that must not be missed.

The idea of a “special” US-Polish relationship has still much currency in Poland and was revived with President Nawrocki’s inaugural Washington visit. But the muted US reaction to Russia’s drones violating Polish airspace is causing Poles to rethink it.

The narrow presidential election win of Karol Nawrocki has made to the task of Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk much harder. Still, there is a chance for a continued Polish leadership role in Europe.

Relations with the United States “in a new phase,” Poland is experiencing something of a Zeitenwende, or historic turn, when it comes to the country’s fundamental foreign policy orientation. The US president is far from universally disliked, though.

The Polish prime minister needs to juggle domestic constraints and European tasks. It will be a difficult balancing act.