World orders come and go. And it’s pretty clear that the current one, built in large part by the United States after 1945, is on the wane. What’s highly unusual, however, is that it is being most actively destroyed by the very power that established it and benefited greatly from it.
The second Trump administration has made it more than clear that it is no longer particularly interested in upholding the global order or enabling global governance. For instance, at various points US President Donald Trump has repeated his intent to engage in territorial expansion (Canada, Greenland, Panama). In stark contrast, the first line of the 1941 Atlantic Charter his predecessor, Franklin D. Roosevelt, and then British Prime Minister Winston Churchill signed as a foundational document of the order to emerge from the ruins of World War II, says that the countries “seek no aggrandizement, territorial or otherwise.”
This fundamental breach, however, is only one aspect. The destructive approach the Trump administration is pursuing is touching on everything that has defined the global order over the past 80 years or so: alliances, international organizations, multilateral bodies, the way the global economy operates, and much more.
In this issue, we try to gauge the consequences of this development. Samir Puri argues that the “full-scale retreat” from the US’ global governance contributions is unprecedented and that the short-term outlook for addressing global problems is “bleak.” He interprets it as part of a global rebalancing and predicts that, for now, we are heading “toward a world of regional and issue-specific responses to collective problems.” Daniel J. Sargent shows that the post-1945 order was never as stable as it appears in retrospect. He eloquently argues that rebuilding it requires thinking outside the box; he also makes the case for any new global order being anchored in values again, to have a chance of general acceptance and political legitimacy.
Harold James, meanwhile, demonstrates that Trump’s haphazard attempts to rewrite the rules of global trade are based on a perverse form of globalism that will make the problems Trump claims to address even worse. James also sees a chance that, as a consequence, we will see the emergence of a better, more multilateral global economic order—if Europe plays its part. Gordon Peake, who saw the attempted destruction of the Unites States Institute of Peace from the inside, reflects on the death of American soft power.
The emergence of a new world order will likely be chaotic. This issue is being published as Trump attends the first NATO summit of his second presidency, after which the EU’s European Council, i.e., its heads of state and government, will convene and likely take momentous decisions to set Europe’s rearmament at work. In an interview European Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius sketches out the task, while Frank Sauer explains why Europe catching up on defense and deterrence is the only way to avoid more nasty surprises such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Amid a US in retreat, a militarily stronger Europe will also contribute to eventually building a more stable world.
Henning Hoff is executive editor of INTERNATIONALE POLITIK QUARTERLY.
