Defense is increasingly a cause for concern among European Union citizens. In fact, there are few issues upon which Europeans agree so strongly as those relating to security and defense. According to the recent Eurobarometer poll on public opinion in the European Union, 80 percent of Europeans believe that co-operation in defense matters at the EU level should be increased and 77 percent are in favor of a common defense and security policy among EU member states.
Overwhelming Support
Security and defense are very much on European citizens’ minds, not only because of Russia’s war against Ukraine, but also because of the larger context marked by a growing number of hybrid attacks on critical infrastructure in Europe, the crisis in the Red Sea where Iran-backed Houthi rebels are disrupting international shipping, and the raging conflict in the Middle East. On top of this, several political and military European leaders have cautioned about a potential Russian attack on EU and/or NATO member states within a number of years.
Against this background of evolving threats, 71 percent of EU citizens agree that the EU needs to reinforce its capacity to produce military equipment and a whopping 80 percent say that EU member states’ purchase of military equipment should be better coordinated.
In Sync with EU Priorities
These attitudes are in line with the security and defense priorities outlined by the political leadership of the EU and the member states. With the adoption of the EU Strategic Compass, the initiative to provide ammunition for Ukraine, the launch of the European Defense Industrial Strategy, the newly established post of European commissioner for defense, the EU has broken many taboos in the pursuit of strengthening its security and defense role in recent years.
As we enter a new political cycle at the EU level, there is an overwhelming consensus on the need to continue to take greater responsibility for the security and defense of Europe. The EU Strategic Agenda for 2024-2029 (which sets the EU’s priorities and strategic orientations) puts a premium on a stronger EU defense readiness and capacity and an increased defense spending. The political guidelines for the next European Commission (2024-29) also advocate for a “new era for European defense and security and building a true European Defense Union.”
Not Walking the Talk Yet
Despite clear objectives, support from EU citizens, and some progress having been made, considerable gaps exist between the stated priorities and implementation.
According to the recently released Draghi report there is still a long way to go to achieve EU defense readiness: There is insufficient public spending; EU countries don‘t coordinate on the procurement of military equipment; there is unnecessary duplication of capabilities; and around four-fifths of total procurement spending goes to non-EU suppliers. In addition, significant efforts are needed to build up the scale of the EU defense industry.
According to the Eurobarometer, 66 percent of Europeans believe that more money should be spent on defense in the EU. The EU’s executive is calling for a significant ramp-up of financing and has estimated that €500 billion worth of investment is required over the next decade.
There is general agreement that more money for defense at the EU level is needed. Nevertheless, the devil is in the detail. European citizens may overwhelmingly support this goal in theory, but how to get there is the real question. This requires prioritizing security and defense over other areas. If there should be more money for defense, which areas should be funded less? When asked about priority areas for the EU, security and defense ranks third among European citizens, after the environment and climate change, which is top, and irregular migration, as noted in the most recent Flash Eurobarometer on EU challenges and priorities, published in July.
Questions such as how exactly to finance Europe’s defense needs and how funds would be distributed among different defense priorities will dominate the European debates in the coming months. The negotiations for the next Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF), the EU’s budget, will be paramount as the EU is looking to put its money where its mouth is.
Yet, there is another hurdle to advancing European defense capabilities. While defense is undoubtedly at the top of the policy priorities in European capitals, the sense of urgency to implement measures and increase defense budgets varies. The threat perception between western and eastern member states differs, and this is noticed both at the political and at the public opinion level. The recent Flash Eurobarometer on EU challenges and priorities reflects this. In some EU member states, security and defense is a top-ranked priority. This applies, for instance, to countries such as Estonia (52 percent) and Lithuania (51 percent) while, by contrast, at the other end just 20 percent of respondents see this as a priority in Italy.
Looking Ahead
The results of Flash Eurobarometer on EU challenges and priorities highlight that 64 percent of Europeans are concerned about the EU’s security in the next five years.
The future security environment looks very uncertain. The war in Ukraine, emerging crises and conflicts in Europe’s neighborhood, and a growing trend of increased hybrid and cyber threats will continue to top the agenda of security challenges.
As we enter the new political cycle, the EU and the member states need to take bold action, dedicate significant amounts of funding to defense, and translate priorities and strategies into concrete actions. This needs to happen in close coordination with and complimentary to NATO’s efforts.
Politicians should not take the overall public support for granted. They should continue to make the case for larger investments in defense and keep public opinion on board by highlighting the critical importance of these measures for deterrence and long-term security in Europe and showcasing defense as a European public good.
The years to come will be the real test for defending Europe.
Mihai Sebastian Chihaia is Policy Analyst at the European Policy Centre (EPC) in Brussels.
