With Friedrich Merz, it seems, Germany is entering new, uncharted territory.
The 69-year-old leader of the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) only become German chancellor on his second attempt. And he has form. It already took three rounds of voting for him to be elected leader of the CDU back in 2021.
The adage by Irish absurdist playwright Samuel Beckett—“fail again, fail better”—comes to mind. Optimists will make the argument that it speaks of Merz’ determination and staying power not to take “no” for an answer. This kind of determination in adversity is what the country, and by extension, the continent, needs right now, one might say. “From today on, hope is governing,” German tabloid BILD claimed on its frontpage before the voting had even started. It may have been more right than it knew.
Merz’ false start was little less than a fiasco as it has shown that Merz and his coalition with the Social Democrats (SPD) are on shakier ground than it seemed. The new chancellor got 325 votes in the second round—more than the required 316, but still not all of the 328 votes the parties have combined.
Six Votes Short
In his first attempt in the early morning, Merz only got 310 votes, six fewer than required. What’s more, there were 307 votes against him—and the combined opposition of the far-right extremist Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), Greens, and far-left Die Linke command only 301 votes; the single MP representing the Danish minority in the Bundestag (SSW), abstained, as did two others. Nine MPs didn’t take part in the voting even though they were in the Reichstag, the parliamentary building. This means that at least six MPs from his own party and/or the SPD voted against Merz in the first round.
All this has damaged Merz, who didn’t look too strong politically in the first place (potential rivals such as Jens Spahn, the new parliamentary CDU/CSU leader, and Carsten Linnemann, the CDU’s secretary general, declined offers to enter the government). It also reflects badly on Lars Klingbeil, the Social Democrats’ (SPD) co-leader and Merz’ key coalition partner, who emerged as the SPD’s new strongman after the elections and takes over as vice chancellor and finance minister. He will need to ask himself some tough questions about his abilities in the field of party management and planning ahead. Is Germany now led by a shortsighted and cavalier duo infernale?
In Crisis Mode
Suffice to say that the new governing coalition is thus starting in crisis mode just when the domestic and—even more so—the international situation requires the exact opposite: a stable, reliable government in Berlin that can do a better job at playing a leadership role in Europe.
And after speedy coalition negotiations, a seemingly solid basis had been laid—thanks as well to the Greens, who voted for the necessary constitutional changes to get the Merz government a debt-financed kitty of potentially €1 trillion to spend over the next 10 years on defense and infrastructure. While the CDU/CSU and SPD tended to blunt each other’s more ambitious ideas, be it on economic (CDU) or social security (SPD) policy, there are a number of solid-enough ideas in the coalition agreement to get Germany’s economy growing again. This is their number one issue, both Merz and Klingbeil stressed when presenting the agreement before Easter.
The CDU Takes Charges
The constellation for foreign and security policy looks promising, too. For the first time in six decades, the CDU is taking over the foreign office, with Johann Wadephul as foreign minister. Since the late 1960s, the ministry was occupied by the smaller of the coalition parties, be it the SPD, the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP), or the Greens. Even with the best intentions, as the outgoing Scholz government had at the beginning, there was always bound to be frictions between the foreign office and the chancellery, most recently on Ukraine policy.
Wadephul is a Merz loyalist who, while ambitious, has been happy to stay in second place; he had already coordinated policy with the Scholz caretaker government, visiting various European capitals in recent weeks. His predecessor, Annalena Baerbock (Greens), presented him with a mug inscribed with a northern German greeting (“Moin”) “so he felt immediately at home” as well as a book–“In der Männer-Republik” by Torsten Körner (roughly “A Men’s Republic”) which describes the long and difficulty path women politicians had to take in postwar Germany to gain acceptance. It was a subtle hint not to throw blindly overboard a feminist foreign policy approach which Baerbock promoted and the CDU/CSU often harshly criticized.
Wadephul has three ministers of state (Staatsminister, effectively deputy ministers) at his side, the most interesting of which is Serap Güler, the daughter of Turkish immigrants, who has been a vocal proponent of a more forward-leaning German foreign and security policy. There is also Gunther Krichbaum, who previously chaired the parliament’s Europe Committee, and is experienced in EU affairs. Florian Hahn, the Bavarian CSU’s first-ever deputy minister in the foreign office, is supposed to make sure the interests of the CDU’s sister party are also reflected in German foreign policy.
Power Center Chancellery
The CDU taking over the foreign office means that it will work much more in tandem with the chancellery, where Merz has two highly regarded diplomats to advise him—Günter Sautter, who joins from his position as political director of the foreign office, as Merz’ foreign policy advisor, and Michael Clauß as European policy advisor; since 2018, Clauß had been Germany’s man in Brussels, as permanent representative at the EU. There is also Jacob Schrot, Merz’ 34-year-old head of office, who will coordinate the formation of a new national security council in the chancellery.
For Merz, whose ambition seems mostly in European and foreign affairs, this is a perfect mix of seasoned experts and fresh minds to tackle the ever-growing mountain of foreign policy challenges: a war-waging Russia that shows no sign of tiring in its attempt to conquer Ukraine, an America that under Trump has turned into an unreliable ally, if not an openly hostile antagonist out to destroy the EU, a China that has its own designs on global power, and many more. For postwar Germany, this situation is unique, as is the challenge of rearming Europe so it can deter Russia on its own, if necessary, and reach out to the emerging nations of the so-called Global South.
Old and New SPD Faces
The latter tasks bring in the SPD: Boris Pistorius is staying on as the sole minister from Scholz’ government. Merz will need the SPD’s most popular politician to succeed in the effort to turn around Germany’s armed forces and manage a speedy pan-European rearmament.
The next minister for economic cooperation and development will be Reem Alabali-Radovan, a 35-year-old who was born in Moscow to Iraqi parents and grew up in northern Germany. She worked in Scholz’ chancellery as the government’s representative on migration, refugees, and integration, and is the shooting star in Merz’ cabinet, presenting a new German face to the wider world.
The shaky start of the new CDU/CSU-SPD government suggests, however, that many internal struggles still lie ahead. Merz and Klingbeil will need to reinvent themselves to some extent to make the coalition work. Only then will Germany be able to pursue a successful foreign, European, and security policy the country and its European partners so urgently need.
Henning Hoff is Executive Editor of INTERNATIONALE POLITIK QUARTERLY.
