For the past month, the French have once again been caught up in a dramatic vote. And as in every French vote, the election seemed existential not only for the French, but also for the European Union. The far-right and historically pro-Russia Rassemblement National (RN), led by Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, promised to take the fight to Brussels and was in the lead in the first round of the vote.
Yet, if regular French, EU capitals and financial markets worried so much about the election, it was not because France’s electorate is particularly far-right. A third left, a third centrist, a third far right—French voters are like the Dutch or the Austrians. The drama is due to France’s electoral system, where minority parties can win parliamentary majorities.
The Danger Hasn’t Vanished
And as it is unlikely that France’s new parliament will accept a left-wing minority government for long or agree on a German-style grand coalition of center-left and centrist parties, the threat of RN has not vanished. Snap elections are likely to be called in the summer of 2025.
Despite all the spontaneous celebrations in Parisian streets with Le Pen’s party only coming in third, one should not forget that the political challenges and necessary compromises in forming a functioning government are immense—not to speak of the difficulties passing a budget that is vaguely compliant with European fiscal rules. All of this is likely to strengthen the far right further.
While the cordon sanitaire is still intact, with left-wing and centrist parties withdrawing their third-placed candidates for the second-round vote, with each election it becomes less effective. The RN still got a bigger share of the popular vote than the left and registered its best result in history, winning 143 seats last Sunday. And the run-off votes in many constituencies were often narrow.
In fact, both the 2022 and Sunday’s legislative elections produced hung parliaments; in terms of seats gained, RN was the winner each time, which should set the alarm bells ringing. The French Republic’s majoritarian electoral system, rooted in what the French sometimes proudly call “le fait majoritaire,” is transitioning from an obstacle to an enabler of the far right.
A New Electoral Law
This is why the most important task of the new hung parliament and possibly the one central point on which they could build a large majority on is adopting a new electoral law based on proportional representation.
This would change French politics in five ways.
First, French elections would become more boring and more predictable—just like most other European elections. Then, the question would be, essentially, whether RN wins 25 or 30 percent of the seats, and not whether it gets an absolute majority or not.
Second, the move to proportional representation is a pre-condition to make parliamentarism work. Only if all political camps understand that there is no chance of obtaining a majority on their own at the next elections, will they start to embrace German-style coalition politics.
Third, proportional representation would strengthen centrist forces. The center-right Les Républicains (LR) would no longer have to fear being swallowed up by RN. Center-left forces such as the Parti Socialiste (PS) and the Greens could redefine their alliance with Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s La France Insoumise (LFI) without fearing annihilation.
Fourth, proportional representation would ensure that RN could never be able to govern on its own, but only as part of a coalition government—just like Giorgia Meloni in Italy or Geert Wilders in the Netherlands. Coalitions constrain far-right parties and make it hard for them to undermine democratic institutions.
Fifth, proportional representation would rebalance the executive powers away from the presidency toward the office of the prime minister and thereby limit the most authoritarian risks built into the constitution of the 5th Republic. It would lead to a less Jupiterian presidency and a more composed executive. This would also help rebuild much-needed trust in France among European partners and financial markets. You cannot build a sovereign Europe with a France that is facing an existential “either-or” election every couple of years or one that relies on a messianic homme providentiel.
A Majority for Change
Now, how can France’s electoral system be changed? It is surprisingly easy. Parliament could decide to modify the electoral law by a simple majority vote. President François Mitterrand famously introduced proportional representation to prevent the right from winning a crushing majority in the 1986 legislative elections. Prime Minister Jacques Chirac then undid the reform in 1987.
There would certainly be a majority for this in the new French parliament. Left-wing parties and President Emmanuel Macron’s center-right Ensemble have the necessary votes. Moving to proportional representation is a key demand in the left-wing alliance’s electoral platform. Ensemble has considered proportional representation in the past, but Macron hesitated and never pulled through. Now the president’s MPs could force him to make the step even if he wavered. And even LR might now support the move, as they see it is in their electoral interest. RN, on the other hand, said last week that adopting proportional representation is no longer a priority, even though the party has argued for its introduction for decades.
France’s hung parliament might last only a year, when snap elections can be called again. But it could it turn out to be France’s most important one in decades.
Moreover, France joining the European mainstream in adopting proportional representation and entering the messy business of coalition-building would not be out of character.
Throughout its republican history, France has always pivoted back and forth between parliamentarism and top-down politics. The parliamentary 4th Republic (1946-58) had a bad press, but it performed well on many fronts, laying the groundwork for les trente glorieuses, the three “glorious” decades of economic growth.
It is now time for France to move back to parliamentary politics and an Assemblée Nationale elected by proportional representation. This would not immediately end the political chaos the country finds itself in. But by the end of the process France would have a more democratic political system that could pacify the country. As Spain has shown in past years, it takes time to adjust from a two-party to a multi-party political system.
Transitions are always turbulent but that is a price worth paying to make France a more functional democracy and a more stable and trustworthy European partner.
Joseph de Weck is the author of Emmanuel Macron: Der revolutionäre Präsident (2021) and INTERNATIONALE POLITIK QUARTERLY’s Paris columnist.
Shahin Vallée is a senior research fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP).
