China’s attempts to assert its territorial claims in the South China Sea have recently led to clashes with the Philippines. Negotiated solutions, including about a code of conduct to manage such dangerous incidents, have become elusive.
Fears about a military escalation between China and the United States dominate the region. Europe’s attempts to garner more support for Ukraine have left Indo-Pacific countries unconvinced.
Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen is traveling the Americas including a “stopover” in the United States for a meeting with US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. At the same time, the number of visits to embattled Taiwan has increased. That's not without problems.
China’s military buildup, but also North Korea’s nuclear threats, have led to South Korea and Japan reinforcing their defenses. This may well lead to an arms race in the Indo-Pacific.
Returning to the international stage, the Chinese president has gone out of his way to court European leaders. This should not be misread as a policy shift. Rather, much suggests that there are troubled times ahead.
While Berlin has become more engaged in the region, it still has no clear strategy on how to approach it. Old principles guiding the Germany-China relationship are getting in the way.
Beijing’s siding with Moscow after the invasion of Ukraine has brought about an alignment on China within the transatlantic alliance.
Beijing is furious at what it sees as the emergence of the long-feared US-led coalition to contain China. With the world moving toward an increasingly bipolar order, countries, particularly in the Indo-Pacific, are likely to feel growing pressure to pick a side.
China’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shows that this war is not just a European crisis. It’s no longer possible to consider Europe and the Indo-Pacific as two separate, siloed theaters.
