Decades of US protection created a false sense of normative superiority in the EU. It also made Europe lose much of its strategic instincts while facing deep-seated systemic deficiencies. Overcoming those will be the key task for 2024.
The United Kingdom has not become “unpredictable” or “undependable” as a consequence of Brexit. Rather, its grand strategy suggests a blueprint for containing Russia’s aggression and increasing Europe’s security.
By launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has brought back geopolitics to Europe for good. It’s striking, however, that a country with such limited resources has been able to set the framework within which the Europeans are forced to act.
Under AKP rule, Turkey has attempted to chart an independent course, focusing on the Eastern Mediterranean, the Black Sea, and Africa while not shying away from confronting the West. But there are limits to this strategy.
For the first time, the EU has made a nexus between trade policy, which is the European Commission’s domain, and security policy, which still largely rests with the member states. Its Anti-Coercion Instrument is a deterrence tool.