Israel may have emerged victorious from the recent conflict with Iran but a long-term stalemate persists in the power struggle between the four main players in the Middle East. That is dangerous.

Hamas’ attack on southern Israel on October 7 runs counter the general trend of détente in the Middle East. If a regional escalation can be avoided, a normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia may still be on the cards.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is likely to exacerbate instability in the Middle East. And that will have implications for Europe’s security.