“Only the AfD can save Germany.” With a post in support of the far-right Alternative für Deutschland on social media platform X, billionaire entrepreneur and US presidential advisor Elon Musk entered the German election campaign shortly before Christmas—and he has managed to dominate it over the holidays. With fewer than 50 days before early parliamentary elections take place on February 23, following the collapse of the government of Social Democrat (SPD) Chancellor Olaf Scholz, this is not a good omen.
Musk was reacting to a video post by a German “new right” influencer and climate-change denier, Naomi Seibt. Speaking in English with a heavy German accent, Seibt criticized German opposition leader Friedrich Merz of the center-right Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) for both excluding working with the AfD and saying that he, Merz, was horrified at the suggestion of “daring more Milei” in Germany, i.e. applying the ultra-libertarian policies of Argentina’s President Javier Milei. (Seibt is a political nonentity in Germany, but, according to her posts, a visitor to US President-elect Donald Trump’s victory party.)
AI Op-Ed
Reactions have been telling. Christian Lindner, the leader of Germany’s pro-business Free Democrats (FDP), Germany’s finance minister until November 6, and the driving force behind the early end to Chancellor Olaf Scholz’ three-way coalition, tried fawning. He had been the politician saying in a talk show that the country should “dare more Milei and Musk” and now saw the AfD reaping the rewards. “I’ve initiated a policy debate inspired by ideas from you and Milei,” Lindner wrote to Musk on X. “Don’t rush to conclusions from afar. Let’s meet.”
Lindner’s efforts were in vain, however. Musk will meet a German politician soon, albeit on an “X-Space Live Talk” on January 9, and it will be AfD co-leader and “candidate for chancellor,” Alice Weidel.
Publisher Axel Springer, owner of Politico as well as the German newspapers Welt and Welt am Sonntag (WamS), went even further in its ingratiation, offering Musk the chance to explain his stance in an op-ed. The article published by WamS on December 28, the English “original” of which was also subsequently published on X (by Springer supervisory board member Martin Varsavsky), asserts that Germany is facing “economic and cultural collapse.” Overall, it showed that Musk has no knowledge of Germany whatsoever. In fact, the article is now widely considered to have been “written” not by Musk, but by artificial intelligence. The Welt/WamS editorial page editor, Eva Marie Kogel, resigned in protest over the publication.
Keeping Their Cool?
In other reactions, Germany’s political class has nervously condemned Musk’s interventions, with Merz calling them “intrusive and arrogant.” The co-leader of the Social Democrats (SPD), Lars Klingbeil, said Musk was aiming at “destabilizing” Germany and thus was “doing the same as [Russian President] Vladimir Putin.” Greens leader Robert Habeck, the vice chancellor as well as economy and climate minister in Scholz’ government, told Musk in an interview with news magazine Der Spiegel, “Hands off our democracy.” The quote made the cover headline.
Scholz kept his comments short, telling media that “the freedom of expression in Germany applies to billionaires, too.” In an interview with Stern magazine, the chancellor took the long view: “As Social Democrats, we have become accustomed for over two centuries to rich media moguls who don’t like our policies and are forthright in saying so. … We should keep our cool.” Scholz also recommended not paying Musk too much attention, referring to the old social media rule “Don’t feed the troll.”
This is sound advice, but it will be difficult to ignore completely a likely powerful figure in the next US administration. More ominous still, US Vice President-elect JD Vance felt moved to join the fray, intervening by describing Musk’s op-ed as “interesting” (“I’m not endorsing a party in the German elections, as it’s not my country and we hope to have good relations with all Germans. But this is an interesting piece.”) The future US vice president then added the falsehood that AfD support was strongest in areas that historically were “the most resistant to the Nazis.” The exact opposite is true: AfD support is strongest in regions, for instance in Thuringia, which were once strongholds for Adolf Hitler’s National Socialists (NSDAP).
Steady Polls
Will any of this sway Germany’s election campaign? It seems unlikely. The first polls conducted after Musk’s interventions have shown next to no movement (most Germans likely did not follow the news too closely over Christmas and New Year’s). Merz’ CDU/CSU remain in the lead with around 32 percent, while the AfD is polling around 19 percent. Scholz’ SPD is at 16 percent, the Greens in fourth place with 13 percent. The pro-Putin Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) as well as Lindner’s FDP and the hard-left Die Linke are hovering around or below the 5-percent mark, which parties need to pass to enter parliament. Election polling trackers (for example by The Economist and Politico) show no real dramatic movement over the past few weeks or even months.
Still, Musk’s antics are hitting a nerve in a country that is worried about its future. Germany’s economy is in recession for a second year running, and big employers such as Volkswagen are planning to close plants and shed jobs. Musk’s omnipresence over the past weeks has indirectly reminded everyone that Germany’s famous industrial base has struggled with the switch to carbon-neutrality and electric vehicles, and its tech sector, still woefully small, hasn’t come up with its own version of Twitter/X.
Merz in Pole Position
However, Musk remains an unlikely patron saint of Germany’s economic revival, and the association with him may end up being more of a curse than a blessing for the AfD. Furthermore, the campaign is only now starting in earnest. While Merz looks like the assured winner, Scholz still believes he has a chance. Some people close to chancellor still exude strong confidence that Scholz will once more pull a rabbit out of the hat and beat the opposition against all odds, as he did in 2021. For that, they are banking on Merz’ unpopularity and a campaign that will try to get around traditional media and the “Berlin press corps” and reach voters concerned about jobs, pensions, and prosperity by promising strong social security and an interventionist state.
Merz, for his part, is hoping that he and his CDU/CSU will regain the trust of a plurality of Germans as the party that is most economically competent and that is getting the big foreign and security policy questions right. On January 5, Merz held a keynote speech to mark the 149th birthday of Konrad Adenauer—the chancellor who led (West) Germany after World War II and anchored it safely in the West. The center-right CDU/CSU platform, published before Christmas, seemed to have been written with the aim of avoiding any controversies.
The Greens, meanwhile, also hope that their “candidate for the people in Germany” (as he is called to avoid the term “candidate for chancellor”) Robert Habeck will make the most of his current “underdog” role and his fabled communication skills. Coming out for defense spending of 3.5 percent of GDP in his Spiegel interview marks him as the political leader most open to the dramatic changes the country requires.
There is still scope for own goals. The CDU’s Bavarian sister party CSU is insisting that a future government with the Greens is ruled out for good. This would limit Merz’ options after the election and make another CDU/CSU-SPD coalition all but inevitable. Similarly, should Scholz achieve what currently looks near impossible and pip the CDU/CSU to first place, he would likely end up with the same combination, as nothing else would work.
This would signal a “back to the future” for Germany—three of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s four governments were so-called “grand coalitions” between the center-right and the center-left. Their record of underinvestment, most dramatically in Germany’s armed forces, but also in infrastructure and the digital transformation, of an energy dependency on Russia, and an overreliance on the Chinese market have led to the current funk. While a return to greater political stability would be welcome, Germany’s next government, perhaps paradoxically, also needs to introduce some dramatic change, be it with regards to improving security or competitiveness and innovation. So far, the parties forming Germany’s democratic core seem unsure how to get there.
Henning Hoff is Executive Editor of INTERNATIONALE POLITIK QUARTERLY.
