Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has shaken Europe and the world to the core. This war will shape the future of Europe and define the century. Power balances will shift, a new security architecture will emerge, international criminal law will be completed, and the moral basis of Europe will be reinforced.
The magnitude of change is clear, but whether it will be for the better or for the worse depends on our actions today, both as governments and societies. Living through the Zeitenwende means assuming responsibility for the world our kids will live in. Tough decisions need to be taken in circumstances where past strategies have failed, half-measures are insufficient, and the time to thoroughly reflect is limited.
From the Zeitenwende to a New European Reality
We welcome the change in Germany’s attitude over the past year, including Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s U-turn on military aid to Ukraine and President Frank-Walter Steinmeier’s admission of past mistakes in German policy toward Russia. These are steps in the right direction and testimony to Germany’s superpower, which is its ability to self-reflect, admit mistakes, and pivot.
Action must follow attitude change. Germany has already made decisive moves, such as support granting Ukraine EU candidate status and providing Leopard tanks. We are most grateful for Germany’s support. Two other crucial decisions that will need to be taken are the setting of a clear path toward Ukraine’s membership in NATO and establishing a Special Tribunal for the Crime of Aggression.
Ukraine’s victory in the war, NATO and EU membership, and the verdict of the special tribunal will form a new European reality.
With all three pillars in place, Europe will be a continent of peace based on strong defense and deterrence instead of disarmament and appeasement. It will be a continent of prosperity based on enhanced and diversified economic ties to Asia and Africa instead of political corruption with Russia. It will be a continent of green energy instead of dependence on Russian fossil fuels and nuclear energy. Finally, Europe will be a continent of justice, where the largest war of aggression in the 21st century not only failed but was prosecuted and punished.
In this regard, the Zeitenwende is the transition from the past to the new reality, not an end point. In its course, it is important to understand what led to this difficult time and draw the right conclusions.
How Germany Got Russia Wrong
The origins of Russia’s genocidal war against Ukraine are rooted in the past. President Vladimir Putin’s Russia did not become what it is—an aggressive revanchist regime—overnight. Years of crackdowns on freedoms inside Russia preceded it, as did years of toxic anti-Ukrainian and, more broadly, anti-Western propaganda. Years of blindness in the West regarding the true trajectory of Russia—grounded in the desire to continue doing business as usual with Russia—as well as years of ignoring the warnings of Ukraine and other Central and Eastern European and Baltic states.
Ukraine also shares some responsibility, too, including foreign policy zigzags, a lack of decisive transformations, and a weakening of the military throughout the 2000s. However, Ukraine woke up in 2014 and has never fallen asleep since, while a number of European governments and elites kept turning a blind eye to Russia’s true motives. The Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline and other bad decisions under the guise of “economic” aims fed the Russian monster even further. Strategic mistakes accumulated over the years, leading to the dark morning of February 24, 2022, when the evil unleashed its full force against Ukrainians.
Today’s sad reality is that it is Russia’s, not Putin’s, war. Ordinary Russians overwhelmingly support their president’s actions. Putin and his generals give the orders, but these are ordinary people from across Russia who slaughtered innocent Ukrainians in Bucha, Irpin, Izyum, Mariupol, and other war-ravaged Ukrainian cities and towns.
How did Russians become staunch supporters and executioners of a genocide? We should say it out loud. The Nazi regime and Putin’s Russia are two different cases, and the former was a unique evil. But the driving forces filling people’s minds with poisonous hatred are similar. In Russia’s case, they emerged directly from a lack of work on confronting the past.
The totalitarian Soviet regime was no different in its methods from the Nazi regime. But unlike generations of Germans, who assumed historic guilt and worked through their collective memory, millions of Russians have failed to do so. Stalin-era crimes have never been properly condemned in Russia, let alone prosecuted. Even more disgustingly, Stalin has been glorified, with people bringing flowers to his monuments and publishing books about an “effective manager” who won the Second World War, ignoring the inhuman cost of the victory. The attitude toward Stalin has always been sharply different among Russians and Ukrainians, who suffered greatly from his regime, including during the 1932-1933 genocide of the Holodomor.
Russia’s unwillingness to come to terms with its own past has led to distorted historical narratives. Putin has privatized the allied nations’ victory over Nazism as Russia’s victory and turned it into an ideological tool of his regime. Instead of commemorating the victims of the war, Russian propaganda forged a bizarre cult. Instead of the universally accepted slogan “Never again,” Russians chose to say “We can repeat it” and draw parallels between Putin’s militarism and the “feat of grandfathers.”
Sadly, Europe slept through the emergence of a new fascism. Luckily, the realization of what Russia is has finally taken hold, and the international community is now reacting properly. Unlike during the 1930s, the world came to its senses and began to support Ukraine with actions, including delivering military assistance, applying sanctions, isolating Russia, and providing humanitarian and financial aid.
This time, the world knows that Russian aggression must fail and Ukraine, as the nation defending itself, must win for the war to end where it started instead of spilling over to other nations.
The Zeitenwende will bring us to the new reality of strategic peace and prosperity only if Germany and other nations do not allow the freezing of the conflict and instead support Ukraine until the last Russian soldier retreats from the last square meter of its internationally recognized territory.
The Victory of Peace and Justice
Horrific atrocities committed by Russians, as well as the horror of an aggressive, unjust, and unprovoked war as such, form a bleeding wound in the heart of Europe. This wound needs healing, and the only cure is justice. Ukrainian law enforcement, the International Criminal Court, the International Court of Justice, and other national and international bodies are working actively to deliver justice for war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide.
The crime of aggression itself cannot remain unpunished, either. Putin and his entourage started this aggressive war. This gravest international crime holds in itself the accumulated evil of all subsequent atrocities. The verdict for it, which will be the first of its kind since the Nuremberg Military Tribunal, will complete the system of international criminal law and reinforce the moral foundation of Europe. Germany’s authoritative voice is crucial for the establishment of a functioning special tribunal.
For Ukraine, victory means restoring territorial integrity and holding Russian criminals accountable. For Russia, defeat means a clear collapse of its invading forces, which will sober the Russians up and serve as an antidote to the poisonous propaganda. For the West, victory means integrating Ukraine into the EU and NATO to ensure long-lasting stability, peace, and justice on the European continent.
Ukraine and Germany have a special responsibility to end Moscow’s revanchist ambitions of restoring the Russian empire. First, because one historic mission both our nations share is to overcome any sort of totalitarianism or revanchism. Second, because these were largely Ukrainians and Germans who helped form the Russian empire back in the 18th century. We will also be the ones to put an end to Russia’s imperialist frenzy today.
Dmytro Kuleba serves as Ukraine’s Minister for Foreign Affairs.
The German version of this article appeard in INTERNATIONALE POLITIK SPECIAL "Reden mit der Republik".
