German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’ visit to Paris, on January 22, on the anniversary of the Élysée Treaty, was a sorry spectacle. Standing next to the chancellor, President Emmanuel Macron claimed that the French-German “couple” was “solid.” This may be true; old couples who still live under the same roof after 62 years are usually considered “solid.” But when one partner addresses their other half with “vous,” as Macron did that day, and the other half reciprocates with “Du,” as Scholz did, you can feel something is not quite right with that couple.
Macron came into office in 2017 with an ambitious, enthusiastic pro-European agenda. Obviously, a close, productive relationship with Germany was a crucial part of it. What he got was a series of missed opportunities, starting with then Chancellor Angela Merkel’s lack of response to his Sorbonne speech. Things got brighter with their cooperation on the groundbreaking NextGenerationEU recovery package to rescue European economies from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. But there was no time to capitalize on that achievement before the change of government in Berlin in late 2021.
Things never really took off under the Scholz-Macron tenure. Noting early on the conspicuous lack of interest in France on the part of the Social Democratic (SPD) chancellor, one of Macron’s advisers explained to me that “the Franco-German relationship is a CDU thing,” referring to the center-right Christian Democrats.
An Existential Relationship
A new CDU chancellor may now prove him right: It is time to stop the deterioration of this relationship and to put it back on track. For Europe, a functioning Franco-German relationship is existential. There is no shortage of stalled projects to be relaunched, nor of differences to overcome. The mood can only improve—asking advisors working in the chancellery to avoid bad-mouthing their French partners in not so private briefings would be a good way to start.
Long term Franco-German projects in the field of industrial defense cooperation to jointly develop a battle tank and a fighter jet must be carried through: They may be complicated and expensive, but they are our geopolitical investment in the coming decades. Political will is needed to advance on that front.
There is one issue where Germany’s next government could change course and overcome another old difference between Paris and Berlin: nuclear energy. The German crusade against nuclear energy as a low carbon power source in Europe must come to an end. France is not alone in having made that choice; out of the 27 European Union member states, 13 now produce nuclear energy—almost half. Berlin shouldn’t stay in the way of those who want to invest in this low carbon energy.
Eastern Extension
A solid, dynamic, and productive Franco-German tandem is indispensable to Europe, but it is not sufficient anymore. New challenges need fresh blood and a wider circle of nations dealing with them. This is why it’s now important to associate Poland with the long-standing, historical relationship between these two founding EU member states.
After the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia in 2022 tragically confirmed the dire warnings of Baltic and Polish leaders and the erroneous policies of Berlin and Paris toward Russian President Vladimir Putin, the common wisdom became that the EU’s center of gravity had shifted to the East. This was an over-simplification, as even with their current difficulties, Germany and France are still the EU’s biggest contributors. But acknowledging the growing weight of the Eastern part of the EU and thus including Poland, particularly under Donald Tusk’s leadership, in a leading trio is essential to make Europe stronger.
Vilified as a “German agent” by the ultra-nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party, Donald Tusk expected a warmer and more fruitful relationship with Berlin after he won the Polish election in 2023, but he grew increasingly frustrated because of Olaf Scholz’s lack of reaction. Berlin should open up to Warsaw, beyond its immediate economic interests. This new Berlin-Paris-Warsaw partnership, which should go deeper than the diplomatic Weimar Triangle, would not necessarily be easy, as each capital has its own issues, calculations, and ambitions. But if the next German government can succeed in restoring trust and confidence with both its neighbors, this achievement will benefit all of Europe.
Getting Defense Right
Defense and security, of course, will be very high on the next chancellor’s agenda. This is another sector where he can and must do better than his predecessors. It might be a good idea to keep Boris Pistorius as a German defense minister, as he seems keen to stay on—and why not? At least he had a good relationship with his French counterpart. Pistorius’ popularity will be helpful when you finally have to tell the truth to your voters: Europeans, including Germans, must spend more on defense, much more, much better, build resilience, increase their production capacities—and not only because US President Donald Trump demands it.
This will involve sacrifices for all of us. So, this historic effort should be regarded as a European effort, just as the fight against the pandemic was led at the European level. And there is no other realistic alternative to common borrowing to finance this effort at the required scale. As an increasing number of Germans are in favor of loosening the debt brake in order to finance more investment, we in France—this will not come as a surprise—hope that a similar evolution of the German mind will follow at the EU level.
An End To Russia Illusions
France and Germany have both erred when it comes to Russia in the past, each in its own way, only to belatedly change course after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. But Chancellor Scholz, sticking closely to the Biden administration’s line, himself hostage to the SPD legacy and fearful of escalation, only went halfway in this new thinking on Russia. Whatever coalition partner Germany’s next chancellor ends up with, the next government should give up any illusion about Putin’s Russia: There is no going back to business as usual—including the Nord Stream pipelines which, as Tusk has rightly said, should never have been built. Germany’s next chancellor should ignore the sirens of nostalgic lobbyists. It is great that Rheinmetall has decided to co-produce weapons in Ukraine. But sending Taurus missiles to the Ukrainian forces is long overdue.
When the crucial question of the security guarantees for Ukraine comes up during negotiations for a potential ceasefire with Russia, the next German government should be ready to step up along with the other Europeans prepared to contribute troops. The ultimate security guarantee is NATO membership for Ukraine, as Secretary General Mark Rutte has acknowledged. Now that Biden is gone, Germany should drop its opposition to Ukraine’s NATO membership—and stand up to President Trump’s ire if necessary.
A Vision for Europe
In fact, what has been missing for so long, under Merkel and Scholz, is Germany’s vision for Europe. In a new book published in France this spring, Clément Beaune, who was Macron’s advisor on Europe during his first term and wrote most of the Sorbonne speech, advocates the Europeanization of migration policies.
By nature, migration has a European dimension since we have a common space for free movement. External borders should be managed jointly: When France alone asks Algeria to take back illegal immigrants, it has very little leverage if Algeria refuses. If France, Germany, Spain, Greece, and the Netherlands put pressure on Algeria together, the result will be different.
Finally, let’s stop beating around the bush with the Draghi report. Germany should take the lead in finding a way to implement it. Here is another idea put forward by Clément Beaune: Ask Mario Draghi to chair a European convention to discuss and determine which priorities can be agreed upon by member states to increase competitiveness, which investments should be made, where, and with what financing. Something similar to former French President Valéry Giscard d’Estaing’s Convention on the Future of the Europe Union—just make sure that French voters don’t reject it in a referendum later.
Times have changed dramatically since the last coalition came to power in late 2021. Germany cannot be the status quo power in Europe any longer. The next chancellor shoudn’t go the Merkel way. He should be encouraged to be bold. To be creative. To be cooperative. To be generous. To be European.
Sylvie Kauffmann is editorial director and international affairs columnist of Le Monde newspaper.
