In February of this year, at the Munich Security Conference, US Vice President Kamala Harris had the job of reassuring allies about the reliability of America’s global leadership. Her appearance arrived at a precarious political moment for Europe and the United States.
The continent’s most urgent security concern, Russia’s war in Ukraine, was about to enter its third year, and US House Republicans were holding up billions in critical military aid to Ukraine. Harris’ boss, President Joe Biden, was locked in a tight reelection race with former Republican President Donald Trump, who’d just delivered a campaign diatribe against NATO allies, saying he’d let Russia “do whatever the hell” it wanted to members who didn’t pay enough for defense.
Concerns about Biden’s health and age—even if he did beat (a not exactly young) Trump—meant Harris had to start proving she could be up for the job of commander-in-chief. And, at least in European leaders’ eyes, it would be great if Harris showed as much enthusiasm as Biden for transatlanticism.
“As President Biden and I have made clear over the past three years, we are committed to pursue global engagement, to uphold international rules and norms, to defend democratic values at home and abroad, and to work with our allies and partners in pursuit of shared goals,” Harris said in her Munich speech.
Optimism and Uncertainty
Europe hopes this shared vision will carry through to a potential Harris-led US administration. The continent is optimistic, but also uncertain, as Biden exits and Harris ascends to the top of the Democratic Party ticket.
Optimistic, because the US presidential race no longer looks like a death march toward a second Trump term. Uncertain, because, unlike Biden, Harris doesn’t have long and deep ties to Europe.
Biden made the continent a priority, rehabilitating the US-Europe friendship and helping to strengthen NATO. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine gets a lot of credit for Biden’s recommitment, and though his approach was far from seamless, Biden clearly relished the role of renewing the transatlantic relationship. It left Harris with a lot less to do, and less need to be visible in European affairs. She will now seek to reassure allies she’s up to the task and find ways to distinguish herself. Europe is already rushing to figure her out.
Continuity, Mostly
And, broadly speaking, it looks as if Europe doesn’t have too much to worry about. Harris is likely to pursue a policy of continuity when it comes to transatlantic relations. Consistency and stability are key, likely in both substance and style. Biden’s message to the world in 2021 was: “America is back.” Harris’ message may be something like: “America is still here.”
Harris didn’t come to the vice presidency with a ton of foreign policy experience, but she has repeatedly made clear, including in her 2020 campaign, that she values US partnerships, seeing them as an essential component of American peace and security. She shares the mainstream Democratic positions of upholding the liberal international order, supporting global institutions, and defending democracy. Like all US presidents before her, these principles will assuredly contain policy contradictions in practice. But as Harris said in Munich this February: “This approach makes America strong, and it keeps Americans safe.”
Those themes will likely define her foreign policy agenda. On European security and defense, a President Harris would remain a strong supporter of NATO and of continued aid for Ukraine. Expect things like reiterating America’s commitment to NATO’s Article 5 and generally pleasant G7 meetings.
On Ukraine, Harris committed some early messaging blunders on Russia’s invasion, which critics have pointed to as a sign she will be out-of-her-depth on the crisis. This, again, was Biden’s turf, but even as a supporting player, Harris is now far more engaged on the issue. She has met with President Volodymyr Zelensky six times, and recently attended Ukraine’s peace summit in Switzerland alongside various heads of state and government.
On the other side of this debate, some see Harris as a chance to break from Biden’s cautious Ukraine approach, taking steps such as lifting restrictions on the use of US weapons. Kyiv may be eager for that, but that possibility could be nerve-racking to other European partners, including the current government of Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin, which has been in lockstep with Biden on this issue.
Europe could also see some friction with Harris on trade (though far less intense than the kind of trade war a Trump return to the White House would entail). Harris will likely build on Biden’s industrial policies, including those under the Inflation Reduction Act. Notably, Harris has emphasized the necessity of pro-climate provisions in any free trade deals. Her administration might put more energy into efforts like the US-EU green steel talks, which stalled under Biden. Europe has already been adjusting to a slightly more protectionist United States, but it doesn’t have to be all bad: A Harris administration might offer new opportunities for Europe to collaborate with Washington.
Competing for Attention
Perhaps the biggest unknown is whether Harris's version of continuity would include robust engagement with Europe, or whether it would look a bit more like diplomacy on autopilot.
Europe was always going to have to compete for US attention, but maybe even more should Harris take over. US tensions with China remain over everything from trade and Taiwan to advanced tech, and Harris will face bipartisan pressure to put more focus on China. Plus, as vice president, Harris’ portfolio included engagement in the Indo-Pacific, part of Biden’s larger strategy to diminish China’s influence in the region. Harris does have close ties in the region, and has quietly helped extend US influence there. This is an area where she might feel that she could finally fully flex her foreign policy muscles.
But Harris’ history in Asia is instructive for Europe. She made her first trip to the region in late summer 2021, a visit overshadowed by the US’ chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan. Some critics thought the debut of Biden’s Indo-Pacific strategy flopped, heightened by Harris’ inexperience. But many have acknowledged that, over time, Harris has learned and listened. In doing so she has become a more effective emissary for the administration, mostly by doing the unflashy detailed policy work that builds trust and relationships over time. Former Harris aides often cite her prosecutorial-like approach to policy: a fact-finder who wants all the information before she commits to decisions and policy solutions. She may pull out this playbook again as President Harris.
A lot will depend on Harris’ team, and Europe has some good news there. Harris’ current National Security Advisor is Phil Gordon,who has deep knowledge and experience in Europe. Harris is unlikely to retain Biden’s national security team, but Gordon is a known quantity in Europe, a potential opening for engagement and communication with a new Harris administration.
The make-up of her team would be the first indicator of how Harris might approach Europe and the world. The second would be the destination of her first foreign trip. Biden, in June 2021, used a NATO and G7 summit to make the rounds with European leaders. After that, he sat down with Russian President Vladimir Putin. It really did signal—maybe even foreshadow—Biden’s foreign policy priorities. If Harris wins, she will make a statement wherever she chooses.
But Harris must first win this presidential election. With the notable exception of Gaza, foreign policy has not factored into this whirlwind summer campaign. Harris may offer a clearer vision on her foreign policy agenda when she makes her first big address this week as the Democratic nominee at the party’s convention in Chicago.
The task of this speech isn’t to reassure allies about the reliability of America’s global leadership. It is about winning over US voters and convincing them that she should be their next president. But you can’t blame officials in Europe, or anywhere else, for tuning in for clues.
Jen Kirby is an international affairs journalist, focusing on national security, human rights, and democracy. Most recently, she covered world politics for Vox as a senior reporter.
