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The European Union seems disoriented in 2024. The German chancellor is turning to Washington when leadership is needed. That leaves French President Emmanuel Macron.

The debate about further enhancing the EU’s financial firepower has led nowhere and might actually be regressing. It is time to discuss the future of the EU budget, its capacity to borrow and Europe’s taxing power with greater urgency. 

European voters are in the habit of treating the European Parliament elections every five years as inconsequential protest votes based on national issues not related to the EU. But if they vote for the far right, it will have major economic, environmental, and geopolitical consequences.

The government of Chancellor Olaf Scholz set out to define its foreign and security policy in “the European interest,” but has regularly failed to do so. It should change course now.

The Weimar Triangle of France, Germany, and Poland is now supposed to propel Europe’s response to Russia’s war against Ukraine, but it isn’t working. Including the United Kingdom is essential.

Decades of US protection created a false sense of normative superiority in the EU. It also made Europe lose much of its strategic instincts while facing deep-seated systemic deficiencies. Overcoming those will be the key task for 2024 and beyond.

By launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has brought back geopolitics to Europe for good. It’s striking, however, that a country with such limited resources has been able to set the framework within which the Europeans are forced to act.

Under AKP rule, Turkey has attempted to chart an independent course, focusing on the Eastern Mediterranean, the Black Sea, and Africa while not shying away from confronting the West. But there are limits to this strategy.

The United Kingdom has not become “unpredictable” or “undependable” as a consequence of Brexit. Rather, its grand strategy suggests a blueprint for containing Russia’s aggression and increasing Europe’s security.

Beijing has been centering its dealings with Europe around strategic investments in the continent’s infrastructure. While the EU’s pushback has increased, China is unlikely to lose interest.

Greece has historically perceived the EU enlargement policy as an enabling framework for the advancement of its national preferences. This is likely to remain the case today.

The current security situation in Europe has brought enlargement back on the agenda. This should also provide the catalyst for EU reform.