French President Emmanuel Macron has banked on Franco-German cooperation, an approach that finally proved successful in 2020. With Angela Merkel leaving the scene, he needs to build bridges to her potential successors, and quickly.
Angela Merkel had the advantage that during her 16 years at the helm, Germany was spared the economic and political upheaval many of its neighbors experienced, making her brokering EU leadership possible. Her successors may not be so lucky.
In its dealings with Beijing, the United States has turned to classic grand strategy with the aim of safeguarding its primacy. In contrast, the EU has been pursuing a less consistent, but much more suitable multi-track approach. China’s latest actions may push the Europeans to full alignments with the US—which would be both momentous and dangerous.
A robust transatlantic agenda on China is required not in spite of, but because of the complex interdependencies that exist between the West and Beijing.
The EU and the US are coming to the realization that China poses questions that neither can answer on their own.
Germany’s Greens have advocated for a more principled approach to Beijing for years. As they prepare for a return to power in a post-Merkel government, they are promising to reshape China policy.
China seeks to cement a multi-polar world order in which no other state can “interfere” with what it sees as “internal affairs.” Such a world would be incompatible with the EU’s values and political identity.
The US president faces a number of interconnected challenges when it comes to developing US policy toward China. The big question, preying also on allies’ minds, is whether his approach will lead to a balanced, pragmatic relationship or drive zero-sum contestation?
There is a growing consensus that the EU has to become a geopolitical actor. To achieve this goal, numerous constraints will need to be overcome. Priorities include defining its position vis-à-vis the incoming Biden administration—and China.
COVID-19 has forced Europeans to confront a twin shock to their worldview, with a philosophical crisis overlaid by a geographical one. The EU now needs to embark on a broad-based effort to ensure its strategic sovereignty.
If Europe has ambitions to shape the future of its neighborhood, rather than just accept it, it must redefine its role in the Middle East and take action now.
Dealing with the Erdogan government will be a stress test for the European Union’s geopolitical ambitions.
