By launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has brought back geopolitics to Europe for good. It’s striking, however, that a country with such limited resources has been able to set the framework within which the Europeans are forced to act.
The United Kingdom has not become “unpredictable” or “undependable” as a consequence of Brexit. Rather, its grand strategy suggests a blueprint for containing Russia’s aggression and increasing Europe’s security.
Under AKP rule, Turkey has attempted to chart an independent course, focusing on the Eastern Mediterranean, the Black Sea, and Africa while not shying away from confronting the West. But there are limits to this strategy.
Beijing has been centering its dealings with Europe around strategic investments in the continent’s infrastructure. While the EU’s pushback has increased, China is unlikely to lose interest.
Before the question of how to enlarge the European Union comes the question: What kind of EU are we enlarging?
Since the start of Russia’s full-scale war, Poland has been one of the strongest advocates of integrating Ukraine into the EU. But is it ready to accept the various consequences of such a move?
Ireland is regarded as having benefited enormously from its 50 years as an EU member state. While Dublin is overwhelmingly supportive of enlargement, there could still be tensions ahead over issues related to the budget and changes to the EU institutions.
The enlargement and reform debate has started, and some progress should be possible before the European elections in June 2024, says Anna Lührmann, minister for Europe in the German Foreign Office.
After a lost decade-and-a-half that saw the establishment of German predominance, there is now the acute danger of Berlin and Paris applying rejected ideas to enlarging and reforming the EU: Four principles for a future-oriented EU expansion and adaptation.
Greece has historically perceived the EU enlargement policy as an enabling framework for the advancement of its national preferences. This is likely to remain the case today.
The current security situation in Europe has brought enlargement back on the agenda. This should also provide the catalyst for EU reform.
China and, to a far lesser degree, Russia, have expanded their economic and military engagement with countries in Africa and Latin America. If Europe wants to counter this, it needs to look closely at what has worked.
