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The United Kingdom has not become “unpredictable” or “undependable” as a consequence of Brexit. Rather, its grand strategy suggests a blueprint for containing Russia’s aggression and increasing Europe’s security.

For the first time, the EU has made a nexus between trade policy, which is the European Commission’s domain, and security policy, which still largely rests with the member states. Its Anti-Coercion Instrument is a deterrence tool.

Beijing has been centering its dealings with Europe around strategic investments in the continent’s infrastructure. While the EU’s pushback has increased, China is unlikely to lose interest.

The EU is becoming more of a security actor. European publics approve, at least in the abstract.

The EU’s consensus-driven stumble toward choosing institutional leaders is more democratic than the alternatives.

For some, the latest climate summit has brought a breakthrough given the commitment to move away from fossil fuels. In fact, the record is more mixed.

Decades of US protection created a false sense of normative superiority in the EU. It also made Europe lose much of its strategic instincts while facing deep-seated systemic deficiencies. Overcoming those will be the key task for 2024 and beyond.

Even during the current economic downturn, unemployment rates are still relatively low in France and Germany. But unemployment is no longer a good indicator of the health of Europe’s economy.

By launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has brought back geopolitics to Europe for good. It’s striking, however, that a country with such limited resources has been able to set the framework within which the Europeans are forced to act.

Under AKP rule, Turkey has attempted to chart an independent course, focusing on the Eastern Mediterranean, the Black Sea, and Africa while not shying away from confronting the West. But there are limits to this strategy.

For too long, there has been a misconception that Germany has to choose between either a “value-oriented” or an “interest-driven” foreign policy.

2024 will likely test Germany when it comes to its two most important defense and security tasks: helping Ukraine and improving the Bundeswehr.