The Future of the Zeitenwende: Scenario 5—Poland Becomes a Nuclear Power
For Poland to seriously consider becoming a nuclear power, its security environment would have to change dramatically. But it’s worth contemplating what the impact of such a scenario would be for Europe.
Germany Needs to Take the EU’s De-Risking From China More Seriously
With another Trump presidency in the offing, Berlin should accelerate efforts to reduce Europe's economic dependencies on China.
The Future of the Zeitenwende—Scenario 4: Président Marine Le Pen?
Marine Le Pen has a real chance of winning the French presidential elections in 2027. That would pose risks for the whole Europe and suspend the Franco-German engine.
The Netflix President
If Emmanuel Macron’s party botches the European elections in June, the French president will lose control of his three remaining years in office. Thus, he is doing what he does best: putting on a big show.
The Future of the Zeitenwende: Scenario 3—Russia Masses Troops on the Latvian Border
NATO must develop a credible deterrent in order to prevent attacks from Russia. In this, Germany has particular responsibility.
Taiwan’s Election Creates Opportunities for Europe
With Lai Ching-te, the Taiwanese have elected another DPP president, to the ire of Beijing. For the EU, the election outcome offers a chance to forge closer relations with Taipei.
Germany Needs a Strategy—Grand and Democratic
German leaders have long been reluctant to discuss, let alone set, grand strategy. Now, with the world in flux and the old ways no longer working, Berlin needs to step up and clearly lay out what it wants—and how it plans to get it.
The Future of the Zeitenwende: Futureproofing German Security Policy
Stubborn stasis. Huge unilateral change. Stubborn stasis. Germany has repeated this pattern for decades, causing gridlock in Europe. Now it is in danger of repeating it yet again.
Flirting with Dictatorship
The US presidential election in November will be pivotal for America’s role in the world and the future of US democracy.
British Geostrategy and the Defense of Europe
The United Kingdom has not become “unpredictable” or “undependable” as a consequence of Brexit. Rather, its grand strategy suggests a blueprint for containing Russia’s aggression and increasing Europe’s security.
The EU’s New Anti-Coercion Instrument Will Be a Success if It Isn’t Used
For the first time, the EU has made a nexus between trade policy, which is the European Commission’s domain, and security policy, which still largely rests with the member states. Its Anti-Coercion Instrument is a deterrence tool.
Resilience at Core of China’s Geostrategic Approach to Europe
Beijing has been centering its dealings with Europe around strategic investments in the continent’s infrastructure. While the EU’s pushback has increased, China is unlikely to lose interest.