With Lai Ching-te, the Taiwanese have elected another DPP president, to the ire of Beijing. For the EU, the election outcome offers a chance to forge closer relations with Taipei.
German leaders have long been reluctant to discuss, let alone set, grand strategy. Now, with the world in flux and the old ways no longer working, Berlin needs to step up and clearly lay out what it wants—and how it plans to get it.
Stubborn stasis. Huge unilateral change. Stubborn stasis. Germany has repeated this pattern for decades, causing gridlock in Europe. Now it is in danger of repeating it yet again.
2024 should be the year that sees both Brussels and Berlin start merging geopolitics with strategic thinking.
The US presidential election in November will be pivotal for America’s role in the world and the future of US democracy.
The United Kingdom has not become “unpredictable” or “undependable” as a consequence of Brexit. Rather, its grand strategy suggests a blueprint for containing Russia’s aggression and increasing Europe’s security.
For the first time, the EU has made a nexus between trade policy, which is the European Commission’s domain, and security policy, which still largely rests with the member states. Its Anti-Coercion Instrument is a deterrence tool.
Beijing has been centering its dealings with Europe around strategic investments in the continent’s infrastructure. While the EU’s pushback has increased, China is unlikely to lose interest.
The EU is becoming more of a security actor. European publics approve, at least in the abstract.
The EU’s consensus-driven stumble toward choosing institutional leaders is more democratic than the alternatives.
For some, the latest climate summit has brought a breakthrough given the commitment to move away from fossil fuels. In fact, the record is more mixed.
Decades of US protection created a false sense of normative superiority in the EU. It also made Europe lose much of its strategic instincts while facing deep-seated systemic deficiencies. Overcoming those will be the key task for 2024 and beyond.