China’s military buildup, but also North Korea’s nuclear threats, have led to South Korea and Japan reinforcing their defenses. This may well lead to an arms race in the Indo-Pacific.

Returning to the international stage, the Chinese president has gone out of his way to court European leaders. This should not be misread as a policy shift. Rather, much suggests that there are troubled times ahead.

While Berlin has become more engaged in the region, it still has no clear strategy on how to approach it. Old principles guiding the Germany-China relationship are getting in the way.

Beijing’s siding with Moscow after the invasion of Ukraine has brought about an alignment on China within the transatlantic alliance.