Pariscope

President Emmanuel Macron is hoping that his tougher line vis-à-vis Russia will endear his party to voters. But the French care much less about foreign policy than one might think.

In 2020, the European Union spent big and agreed on a common vaccine strategy to survive the pandemic. Today, French President Emmanuel Macron believes EU cash and a common plan to arm Kyiv is what is needed to keep Russia at bay. 

If Emmanuel Macron’s party botches the European elections in June, the French president will lose control of his three remaining years in office. Thus, he is doing what he does best: putting on a big show.

Even during the current economic downturn, unemployment rates are still relatively low in France and Germany. But unemployment is no longer a good indicator of the health of Europe’s economy.

The French president is performing a balancing act between showing loyalty to Israel and attempting to revive the Palestinian cause. His efforts are in line with France’s traditional policy toward the region.

The German government faces a weighty decision: Should it block France from providing cheap energy to its industrial companies? Or should it introduce its own electricity subsidy for its struggling industrial sector? The decision will show us if Berlin is ready to embrace an economic Zeitenwende.

Paris no longer sees EU enlargement as an obstacle, but as a catalyst for its “European sovereignty” agenda. It’s an uncertain bet, but there are two good arguments for why an EU that moves further east may pave the way for a “Europe puissance.”

The EU’s history is closely intertwined with the fate of its automobile industry. As China’s electric vehicles take the continent by storm, Paris has put forward a balanced proposition for how to save European producers. But to really make it work, Berlin and others have to follow.

Six years after his famous Sorbonne speech, what should be Emmanuel Macron’s next big EU initiative? A case can be made for Macron continuing to push forward his “European sovereignty” paradigm. But would that entail that he is now getting serious on EU institutional reform?

The French president’s current troubles can be traced back to 2005, when the French rejected a Constitution for Europe only for Paris to then ratify the Lisbon Treaty two years later. A return to parliamentarism is the only solution.

This weekend France and Germany celebrate a treaty that was born in discord and remains the manifestation of their continued disagreements. Yet celebrating the Franco-German myth remains an imperative of realpolitik.

Germany is in the middle of a vibrant debate about its future foreign policy and to what extent to help Urkaine. In France, Macron decides alone. Strangely, two different political cultures produce the same policy results.