Even before Putin launched his war against Ukraine, the European public at large was ahead of their governments in expecting the Russian president to opt for violence. Support for Ukraine is widespread, while the thinking about Russia has fundamentally changed.

If Joe Biden wins the US presidency, his policy on nuclear arms control is unlikely to meet German expectations of focusing primarily on disarmament. Countering China’s rise is, after all, one of the few remaining issues of bipartisan agreement in Washington.